A subject is rarely marked as one number. It is a set of assessments, each worth a different share of the final grade, and the share is what decides how much a bad week costs you or how much an exam can rescue. Here is how the arithmetic works and how to use it.
Each assessment has a mark (as a percentage) and a weight (its share of the subject). Multiply each mark by its weight, add them up, and divide by the total weight of the assessments completed so far.
Example: an essay worth 20% marked at 72, a test worth 30% marked at 65 and a project worth 10% marked at 88. Weighted total = (72 × 20) + (65 × 30) + (88 × 10) = 1440 + 1950 + 880 = 4270. Divide by the 60% completed: 4270 ÷ 60 = 71.2. That is your current standing, and it is a truer picture than the plain average of 75.
Suppose the exam is the remaining 40% and you want to finish on 75 overall. Your target total is 75 × 100 = 7500. You already have 4270, so the exam must contribute 7500 − 4270 = 3230, and 3230 ÷ 40 = 80.75. You need about 81 on the exam.
Written generally: required mark = (target × 100 − weighted total so far) ÷ remaining weight. If the answer is above 100 the target is out of reach with the assessments left; if it is below zero you have already secured it.
The Grade Calculator's Senior coursework mode carries official weighting presets for VCE studies, HSC courses, QCE subjects, WACE courses and SACE subjects, so you can enter results as they arrive and see the year take shape.
In every senior system, school marks are moderated against exam performance before they are combined, and the combined result is then scaled for the ATAR. A weighted average of your raw marks is therefore a planning figure, not a prediction of your study score, HSC mark or grade. It tells you where to put your effort; it does not tell you your rank.
For the rank, use the ATAR calculators: VCE, NSW, QLD, WA and SA. The Grade Calculator can hand a subject's result straight across.
Sources
Figures in worked examples are illustrative. Scaling and rank conversions are recalculated by each admissions centre every year, so treat every estimate as a guide, not a prediction.